The three most likely free agency plans for the Orioles in 2012

Based on a deep historical analysis of my own memories, I've come up with the three most likely routes for the Orioles to take in 2012 MLB Free Agency:

1) The Orioles give huge, multi-year contracts to Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Zumaya (although Zumaya isn't Type A or Type B, so the Orioles might instead find someone who would cost them a draft pick). Then they bring in Hideki Matsui on a multi-million dollar, one-year deal (at least it's not multiple years!) and Johnny Damon on a multi-million dollar, multi-year deal (whoops). They may or may not cap this off by adding Livan Hernandez for mentoring purposes.

2) The Orioles give Jose Reyes 10 years, $250 million to play 2B. He plays a total of 6 games in an Orioles uniform between hamstring, hamstring, hamstring and hamstring injuries. (To be fair, in those 6 games he bats .385 and steals 3 bases.)

3) The Orioles give C.J. Wilson 8 years, $180 million. He spontaneously combusts on the mound on Opening Day.

So there it is. I've thrown down the gauntlet to the new, yet-to-be-named General Manager/President of Baseball Operations. Prove me wrong!
 

Miguel Tejada facts

So for some reason, I thought it would be funny to do a "Miguel Tejada" facts that is like the incomparable Matt Wieters Facts, but instead of great feats of baseball prowess and inhuman strength, they would be amazing ways to screw over a team.

A quick disclaimer: I don't have anything against Miggi and I certainly don't blame him for the 2-11 start to the season, I just think this is an opportunity to be somewhat funny. (Or at least I try.)

So here are some early attempts. Please feel free to add more to the comments.

Fact #1: Miguel Tejada once led off an inning by grounding into a double play.

Fact #2: Miguel Tejada has actually grounded into a quadruple play. The Orioles had to start their next turn at bat with one out.

Fact #3: Miguel Tejada's allegedly tainted vitamin B12 shots are just a placebo. While researchers have noted a placebo effect, that effect is a positive steroids test.

Fact #4: Coaches measure Miguel Tejada's speed from home to first base using a sundial. Unless it's a routine pop-up. Then they use orbits of Haley's Comet.

Fact #5: The only time Miguel Tejada hits Eutaw Street is when he's getting a sandwich at Boog's.

Fact #6: In 2007, Miguel Tejada was within 1,500 games of Cal Ripken's consecutive games played streak. After having his streak snapped just 1,480 games shy of the record, Tejada has set out to beat Cal's other incredible record: 350 GIDPs. That's not even remotely funny, just depressingly accurate.

Terrible, right? I'll try harder next time.
 

Cause for concern? Wieters batting .143 through 6 games

So the hype has died down as the Orioles travel the West Coast, and with the dust settling one might be wondering if all the expectations on rookie catcher Matt Wieters were a little outlandish.

Through six games, Wieters is 3-for-21 with 1 walk, 1 run, 0 RBIs and 5 strikeouts. He has managed a double and a triple (in the same game), but that's still only good enough for a .143 average, .182 on-base percentage and .468 OPS. Not exactly Hall-worthy just yet.

But to be fair, Nick Markakis was hitting .182 a MONTH into his rookie campaign in 2006 before raking his way up to a .291 average at season's end. And since then, Markakis has become the second best player in the Majors, only trailing Matt Wieters.

So don't pack up your Matt Wieters Facts t-shirts just yet. There's no reason to think that he's just another Billy Rowell, Jeff Fiorentino, Adam Loewen, Val Majewski, Mike Fontenot, Beau Hale, Tripper Johnson, Mike Paradis, Larry Bigbie, Keith Reed, Chris Richard, Mamon Tucker, Darnell McDonald, Sean Douglass, Matt Riley, Eugene Kingsale, Ivanon Coffey, Alex Ochoa, Jayson Werth, Rick Krivda, Rocky Coppinger, Ryan Minor......
 

A matchup for the ages

In today's Orioles-Red Sox game, with the Orioles clearly about to squander a 4-0 lead in the 6th inning with Jamie Walker on the hill, something amazing happened.

Before Boston's center fielder came up to bat in the bottom of the sixth with the bases loaded and one run already across in the inning, Baltimore Manager "Diamond" Dave Trembley strolled out of the visitors dugout and made a pitching change that created a historic (not an historic) moment ...


That's right. As comically-named Coco Crisp came up to the plate for the Pink-hat Sox, in from the bullpen strolled almost-as-comically-named Rocky Cherry.


I'm just glad I was paying attention to MLB Gameday as the momentous occasion occurred.

Pop the Champagne

The O's will NOT lose 100 games this year.

Last night's 11-3 stomping of the White Sox not only avoided a sweep, it also was win number 63 for the Orioles, which guarantees that they will not reach that big round number in losses that was talked about so much in March.

So here's a celebratory video for all of us O's fans:


Tiger Woods y'all. It's all good y'all.
 

Time to give up the dream

With 31 games left in the season, the Orioles are 7 games under .500. That means to break the string of 10 straight losing seasons they'd have to go a whopping 19-12 to finish the year.

With 17 of those 31 games coming against teams playing for a playoff spot (2 vs. the White Sox, 3 vs. Boston, 6 vs. Tampa, 3 vs. the Yankees and 3 vs. Minnesota), it's not looking promising.

Meanwhile, the Nationals also have 31 games left and they'd have to go 17-14 to keep from reaching the century mark in losses. That makes me feel kind of bad because I've said for a while (and may have even posted it here) that our local baseball teams couldn't possibly be bad enough to lose 100 games, because that requires a rare kind of awful.

The Rays (101 losses) and Royals (100) both did it in '06, but no National League team has dropped 100 games in a season since the D-Backs lost an impressive 111 in 2004 (the Nats can still match that monumental feat by sputtering to the finish line with a 5-26 mark ... and don't rule it out ... that's well above the pace they've been playing at for the last 16 games), and no NL East team has lost 100+ since the Marlins went 54-108 a decade ago.

Yep. Another baseball season winds up, and our local teams continue to put on quite the depressing show.

In the immortal words of Rob Schneider: "Oh no! We suck again!"


Countdowns to make you feel better:
4 Days until Maryland Football Season Opener (vs. Delaware)
9 Days until Redskins Season Opener (@ NY Giants)
12 Days until Ravens Season Opener (vs. Cincinnati)
45 Days until Capitals Season Opener (@ Atlanta)
64 Days until Wizards Season Opener (vs. New Jersey)
 

Flat. Breezy.

So I was poking around Camden Chat today, and I just couldn't help but laugh when I saw this ad for MASN:

That is a flat freakin' bill. Kids in art class could use that in place of a ruler or the side of their history text book. It's INSANE.

Gotta love George Sherrill. Congrats on making the All-Star team.
 

Orioles Magic

This video is simply fantastic.



I think my favorite part is in the lower right hand of the screen 1:06 into the video...

As far as I can tell, the six O's in the video are Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Millar, Adam Loewen, Adam Jones, George Sherrill and Dennis Sarfate.
 

Orioles Hangout shoots itself in the foot

Someday someone is going to have to explain to me how Tony Pente and the Orioles Hangout crew gets press credentials from the O's front office every year.

Sure, it's great that they have Roy Firestone writing and posting in the forums, but if anyone needed more proof that the site's ONLY value is as a discussion board for O's fans and NOT as a reporting outlet, yesterday provided just that.

Wednesday morning I'm doing my usual Web surfing to get my sports updates, and I see some pretty surprising news: Brian Roberts has been traded to the Cubs!

Not, "We think Brian Roberts will be traded to the Cubs."

Not, "We're hearing that a deal has been finalized."

Not, "This deal is ALMOST done."

No. No disclaimers. It's done. Pack away your #1 jerseys.

Screeeeeeeeeeeeeeech. Not so fast. The same link that just a day ago said it was only a matter of time before the announcement now says "Roberts Trade Denied by Orioles" and has a lot of backpedaling to try and keep you from being outraged, because after all, Pente really really really thought it was true. And even that link is nowhere to be found on the homepage. Instead the lead story is "Trade Rumors heat up," including everyone's favorite already-been-traded second basemen.

And of course you go to the forum and everyone says COME ON NO ONE CAN BLAME TONY HE IS THE BESTEST THING EVER with a general sentiment of "Tony would not run with information he believed to be untrue." (That's a direct quote.)

Well here I go blaming Tony.

Because if you're going to cover a team and put on your journalist hat and claim you're doing real reporting and say that you're a legit news outlet, simply believing it to be true isn't good enough. You have to KNOW it's true.
 

Why do Camden Yards ushers treat opposing fans better than O's fans?

I know I've heard similar complaints before so this is probably beating a dead horse, but I need to vent.

Five of my friends and I have a 13 game plan in section 85 at Camden Yards, and that plan included last night's Orioles vs. Red Sox game.

So we were surrounded by BoSox fans (not surprising) and decided pretty early on that we needed to be vocal. So we were booing when the Red Sox fans cheered and all that crap ... nothing offensive. We took some good-natured ribbing from a few Sox fans around us, but by the 9th inning we were running out of steam and not really saying much.

So when Jason Varitek singled in the go-ahead run the stadium went wild and a friend of mine yelled something innocuous like "Go back to Boston" or "Sit down." And a few alleged Sox fans in the section in front of us turned around to rub it in a little. Again, not too surprising given the general "we run this joint" attitude that visiting Red Sox fans always seem to bring.

The one dude who really wanted to get some shots in is decked out in red and blue -- but not for the Red Sox. For the Phillies. This clown was wearing a Phillies jersey and Phillies hat and for some reason was there rooting on the Red Sox like he grew up trolling Yawkey Way. He yelled something to the effect of "What now!?" at us, so my friends and I can't resist.

"YOU'RE WEARING @#$%*ING PHILLIES GEAR AND YOU'RE TALKING TRASH!? THEY'RE THE LOSINGEST FRANCHISE IN THE HISTORY OF SPORTS! YOU'VE LOST 10,000 GAMES! THAT'S OVER 60 SEASONS WORTH OF LOSSES!" etc. etc.

It really is amazing how much sports trivia you can randomly access from the recesses of your brain when you're pissed off.

Profanities were exchanged but honestly I doubt too many people heard us over the Sox fans' jubilation.

The stupid trash talk was dying down when the usher for our section came to us -- not the Sox/Phillies fans -- and said to sit down and keep our mouths shut, and if she heard anything else she was going to kick us out. Not a word to the Sox fans. So we told her to go give them the same warning, and she said, "They're not the problem. It's you" (paraphrasing).

Of course the Sox fans had a field day with this.

I'm fine that she told us to shut up, but don't act like it's a one-sided affair. Especially when they were at our yard looking for an argument.

Were we being obnoxious? Sure. But it wasn't any worse from our end than theirs, and for some reason the usher acted like we were a bunch of grown men punching babies, going so far as to sit next to the PhilSox fans and assure them the "situation" had been taken care of. She even hung out for the remainder of the game and shared a few laughs.

This isn't the first time I've heard of OUR ushers bending over backwards to please the visiting team's fans in spite of Orioles fans. Why in the world would ushers treat opposing fans, who come to one or two games a year when their team is in town, better than partial plan holders?

Congrats Cal!

Image from BaltimoreSun.com.

I took a few minutes from watching the Yanks run up the score on Daniel Cabrera in the early innings yesterday afternoon to watch Cal Ripken's Hall of Fame induction speech (you can watch it from the Baltimore Sun site by clicking here), and I'd be lying if I said I didn't get a little choked up.

Basically from the time I was born to the time I was almost 18 years old, Cal was a constant with the Orioles. There were some pretty rough years in there and a couple playoff runs. Jim Traber, Larry Sheets and Lenn Sakata gave way to Craig Worthington, Joe Orsulak and Randy Milligan, who then gave way to Jeff Manto, Jeff Huson and Leo Gomez. But Cal was always there. Now there's no one like that.

Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons are the only players on the Orioles who were with the team when Cal finished the final game of his career standing in the on-deck circle with fans chanting "we want Cal" as Brady Anderson struck out to complete the 98th loss of the 2001 season. And no offense to them, but I don't think too many people are going to look back 10 years from now and say, "Gibbons and Mora ... they were Orioles baseball." At least not with the fondness and reverence that goes to Cal.

So here is my congratulations to Cal on his Hall of Fame induction. For 21 years, he was Orioles baseball.

A Personal Quest: Keep Dmitri Young and Kevin Millar in the area!

First of all, let me just say for the record (and for your convenience) that there are a couple places I go for trade rumors, and no, MLBtraderumors.com is not one of them:

Ben Maller's MLB Rumors page on Fox Sports.

Yahoo! Sports MLB Rumors.

That should be enough to keep you occupied for 20 minutes at work. On to the good stuff...

The Washington Post passively mentioned that Dmitri Young could be traded to a contender if the price is right.

Meanwhile, The Sun says what we already know, that Kevin Millar is "one of the Orioles most marketable players" (that they might be willing to part with, at least).

These trades simply cannot happen.

Image from MLB.com.

Young has to stick around, if only because he has the best screen name in The Dugout: SteakGrowsOnDmitri. That and If_Anything_I_Could_ Say_That_This_Cabrera are the only two on the site that I actually replace the player's real name with in my mind.

Also, when resident crazy man Jose Guillen was not re-signed by the Nationals after the 2006 season, I was so disappointed. Who else was going to call another team's manager "a piece of garbage"? Enter Dmitri Young.

Like Guillen, Young is a reclamation project who was given an unconditional release by his former employer. But Young is even crazier than Guillen. And he was an All-Star this year!

Image from washingtonpost.com.

Besides his .390+ OPS, Millar cannot be traded because, as SC at Camden Chat said, "Millar is kind of like the Rally Monkey, only he's a player on the team."

And because there's a corny between-innings video that they show at Camden Yards where O's players pick the best singer on the team, and after the majority vote goes to Millar, the video shows him in Benito Santiago shades going "DA NA NA NA NA NA DOCTOR FEEL GOOD!!!!!!"

And who can forget the Ray Lewis dance?

That's worth the price of admission right there.
 

What? The trade deadline is in eight days?

Being an O's fan (or a Nats fan for that matter), it's pretty easy to forget when the trade deadline rolls around. Because trade deadlines are for "good" teams that are "still in the hunt," or at least teams with good players that someone else might want.

So as I wake up from my month-and-a-half long sleepwalk through the local sports scene to realize that, hey, they're actually still playing baseball and someone I've heard of might change teams soon, it's time to take a look at who might get unceremoniously shipped away from our local losers.

With Miguel Tejada hurt everything gets real boring around here, because who's even worth talking about if not for destined-to-fail Tejada-for-so-and-so-pitchers rumors?

On the Nats all eyes are on Chad Cordero. And honestly who else is worth a damn? Jon Rauch would add bullpen depth to a contender and his name has been tossed around also, but trading away your two best relievers -- both of whom are under 30 -- doesn't seem real smart for a team that's building for the future.

Don't get me wrong, no one's building a franchise around a bullpen, but not having one will certainly slow the process (just ask the Orioles).

Allegedly Ryan Church is on the block, and if Jim Bowden had his way he'd replace Church with Adam Dunn. That's a great idea but I don't see any way that Bowden has what it would take to get Dunn from the Reds. Although I wouldn't have thought Royce Clayton and an over-worked Gary Majewski would have been enough to get Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez from the Reds, so I guess anything is possible when dealing with Bowden's former employer.

For the Orioles there are a few trade options I guess.

They could dump Kevin Millar off on some team that needs a DH or first baseman who gets on base at a .390 clip (that's what he's doing this season ... I didn't believe it myself until I looked it up). The obvious fit is the Yankees but he's said he doesn't want to go there -- or anywhere for that matter.

Steve Trachsel could get some looks from teams who are REALLY strapped for starting pitching (even Rodrigo Lopez got some looks last July). But his departure won't really be much of a loss for the starting rotation with Garrett Olson proving he deserves a shot, nor will Trax bring much of anything in return. So who really cares?

Other than that, there's your typical list of guys who are only in rumors in Orioles fan circles because we want to see them gone, not because there are actually any takers. Danys Baez tops the list of course. Jay Gibbons is a close second. Some have even suggested Chris Ray, but he's got huge upside so why trade him when his value's never been lower?

Yep. Nothing but questions. Boring questions that no one really cares to know the answers to.

Fun.
 

Are The Orioles Stuck With Sam Perlozzo?

The Orioles are 46 games into the 2007 season and they're four games under .500. If you'd have told me that would be the case before the season started, I probably would have sarcastically replied, "Nice prediction, Nostradamus. Next do you want to tell me how the Nationals are going to suck, the Redskins are going to blow a ton of money on overrated free agents and taxes will be due in April?"

But one thing the Orioles have shown this year is that they should be better than a 21-25 team. Clearly they're not actually better than a 21-25 team, because they are a 21-25 team. But some of the losses have been absolutely painful to watch.

Image from GWmagazine

Defensive lapses, blown leads and, of course, managerial ineptitudes. All of this has led many fans -- and at least one local columnist -- to request the firing of manager Sam Perlozzo. Some have even begun a Millar for Manager campaign.

My advice: Don't hold your breath. I don't think Sam's going anywhere any time soon.

Of course I say that as purely my own opinion, and now that I've put it up on the Intergoogles he'll be fired this afternoon.

It's not that I support Perlozzo ... he's been terrible. But do the Orioles really have the stones to essentially fire their manager and pitching coach in one fell swoop? Especially after letting one of the best pitching coaches in the game go to bring in the current pitching coach?

When Perlozzo became the manager I wanted so badly for him to succeed. Not just because it would mean the Orioles were having success, but because he waited so long for his turn. When Leo Mazzone came to town before last season I thought it might actually happen.

Then the season started and it became pretty clear that Perlozzo wasn't exactly a good decision maker -- or anything close.

I tried to write it off as "rookie mistakes," if you will, despite the fact that he'd been in the Orioles dugout for 10 seasons and had already managed for 50 games. He was bad.

For some reason I was again given hope during spring training when all the talk was about Perlozzo's changed demeanor and coaching style.

Did that change results on the field? Nuh uh.

Yet my own feelings are still mixed on firing him, and that's why I think the Orioles front office must be really reluctant to pull the trigger.

If you fire Sam, does Leo go with him? He does, right?

Perlozzo's promotion brought Mazzone here, so it only makes sense that Perlozzo's firing would send him away.

Finding a manager better than Perlozzo won't be hard, but finding a pitching coach better than Mazzone will be damn near impossible. So does the team think they can find a combination of manager and pitching coach that will get them better results than the terrible manager, great pitching coach combo they've got going now?

That's tough to answer, so the easiest thing for the O's front office to do would be to just avoid it entirely.

They're stuck.

Mazzone is under contract through the 2008 season, but I don't think the Orioles would fire Sam and then say, "Hey Leo, you better honor that contract!," leaving them with a disgruntled pitching coach in the dugout.

And that's why I say Sam stays, at least until the end of the year.

Why I'm Not So Upset About The Orioles Three-Game Losing Streak

Normally I'd be devastated by a three-game losing streak like this. The O's had a four-game winning streak and a lot of momentum going for them, they are facing a couple of good teams in short series at home and it would have meant a lot to show those clubs that the O's are for real.

But it's April 26 and that's all B.S.

The O's have been "showing teams that they're for real" for the past few Aprils now. I didn't believe it until I looked it up, but the Orioles have finished April at or above .500 for the past four seasons. And where did it get them? Not once in those seasons did they finish within five games of the break-even point.

Image from baltimoresun.com

That's why early this month I told myself that I wasn't going to get worked up about what happens in April.

Lots of crap teams jump out of the gate hot and put up decent April records. The good teams get better as the season goes on.

And if you look at how the team has played, these guys should feel lucky to still be one game over .500.

Erik Bedard was supposed to be the ace of the staff, and he's putting up Bruce Chen-like numbers.

Melvin Mora seems to have dedicated his April to making a bloopers reel for his six kids.

Razor Ramon Hernandez, One of the best all-around catchers in the Majors, is hurt and has been replaced by Paul Bako, honestly one of the worst all-around catchers in the Majors.

Aubrey Huff in April has been in 2007 as Aubrey Huff in April has been throughout his career -- bad.

But those things will change. Huff will get hot, Hernandez will come back from his injury, Mora can't be this bad in the field forever (right?!?) and Bedard will return to form (he did have a 5.97 ERA on June 1 last year before basically dominating for the last three months of the season to get it down to 3.76).

It's fun to project out numbers less than 20 games into the season and say things like "Ian Kinsler is on pace for 64 homers" or "The Orioles are on pace for 96 wins," but then reality sets in. Because this is baseball, and the season is long.

Every team is going to have winning streaks and losing streaks and every player is going to have slumps and surges, but at the end of a 162-game season everything will end up where it should be. The best players will separate themselves from the flukes and the best teams will rise to the top of the standings.

So for now I'm just trying to sit back, enjoy the baseball and be pleased with how the O's have kept their heads above water despite the issues and injuries. ... But seriously this team better not be sucking like this in May or I'm going to flip.
 

New In The Shop: JAMIE WALKER T-SHIRTS!!!!shift11

That's right. Go to the Beltway Sports Shop and you can get your very own #32 "Everything fits in this skillet" T-shirt (several styles available).

You know you love him. What's not to like? His ideal day includes sitting in the country with a Bud in his hand listening to some music. ... And "maybe a bug zapper" because "them are pretty cool."

This is a guy who plays for a month of the spring in party-town Fort Lauderdale, but says he "ain't going to no damn club, that's for sure." He owns a '79 Trans Am ... and a pickup truck.

And you know what else? If it fits in a skillet ... he kills it.

Here's what's on the shirts (sans "BeltwaySportsBeat.com" above it):

More Meaningless Baseball Stats

If you are merely a passive observer of baseball, you may look at the current records of the Orioles and Nationals and deduce that they are on pace for x wins and x losses based on their winning percentage 13 games into the season:

Orioles: 7-6, .538 winning %, on pace for an 87-75 season (gotta love April).

Nationals: 4-9, .308 winning %, on pace for a 50-112 season (not loving April as much).

But if you use Bill James' pythagorean expectation formula -- 1/(1 + (Runs Allowed/Runs Scored)^2) -- you get different results:

Orioles: 60 runs for, 57 runs against, pythagorean expectation of .526 winning %.
Bill James would say 7-6 is right where they should be, and stretched over an entire season they would go 85-77.

Nationals: 36 runs for, 67 runs against, pythagorean expectation of .289 winning %.
James would again be satisfied with their 4-9 result, and it would stretch out to 47-115 if they continue to play like this.

So not a huge stretch in either direction, but it's interesting that even after only 13 games, Bill James' stats -- which were meant to be applied to full seasons -- are proving accurate.

If I don't get lazy I'll keep track of this throughout the season.

Unusual Statistics That You Don't Want To Hear

Tonight the Orioles lost on a Tigers grand slam in the 12th inning, already the second time this season the Orioles have lost a game on a last-inning, game-winning grand slam.

The season is nine games old.

At this rate, the Orioles will lose 36 games this season in this fashion.

That five-month wait with no baseball sure seems worth it now, doesn't it?
 

Kevin Millar Would Like To Know If There Are Any Dogs In The House

I once heard a pack of drunken frat guys doing their rendition of the Ravens pre-game ritual (I think it was while tailgating for a University of Maryland football game) and it effectively ruined it for me. Just to clarify, they weren't doing it mockingly ... they were serious about getting amped for that next Natty Light.

That being said, Kevin Millar went all Ray Lewis up in this joint on Monday afternoon before the home opener against Detroit. He busted out a pretty impressive rendition of the infamous Ray Lewis pre-Super Bowl dance.

I missed it because I was in the District looking at overpriced apartments, but the good public has been kind enough to hold a digital camera up to a television and post the results on YouTube. So here it is for you to enjoy ... all seven seconds of it!

That's worth watching a good 10 or 20 times.

My Homage to Jamie Walker

So it's only two games into the season, the Orioles haven't won and he's pitched all of 2/3 of an inning, but it's not too soon to wrap all of the amazing backwoods likability that is Jamie Walker into one awesome GIF file.

If first impressions are everything, Jamie should already be in the Orioles Hall of Fame for some of these gems.

So here you go. Man this would make a nice-lookin' T-shirt, ya reckon?


Yes. Indeed I do "reckon." Jamie, have your people call my people.