The three most likely free agency plans for the Orioles in 2012

Based on a deep historical analysis of my own memories, I've come up with the three most likely routes for the Orioles to take in 2012 MLB Free Agency:

1) The Orioles give huge, multi-year contracts to Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Zumaya (although Zumaya isn't Type A or Type B, so the Orioles might instead find someone who would cost them a draft pick). Then they bring in Hideki Matsui on a multi-million dollar, one-year deal (at least it's not multiple years!) and Johnny Damon on a multi-million dollar, multi-year deal (whoops). They may or may not cap this off by adding Livan Hernandez for mentoring purposes.

2) The Orioles give Jose Reyes 10 years, $250 million to play 2B. He plays a total of 6 games in an Orioles uniform between hamstring, hamstring, hamstring and hamstring injuries. (To be fair, in those 6 games he bats .385 and steals 3 bases.)

3) The Orioles give C.J. Wilson 8 years, $180 million. He spontaneously combusts on the mound on Opening Day.

So there it is. I've thrown down the gauntlet to the new, yet-to-be-named General Manager/President of Baseball Operations. Prove me wrong!
 

What? The trade deadline is in eight days?

Being an O's fan (or a Nats fan for that matter), it's pretty easy to forget when the trade deadline rolls around. Because trade deadlines are for "good" teams that are "still in the hunt," or at least teams with good players that someone else might want.

So as I wake up from my month-and-a-half long sleepwalk through the local sports scene to realize that, hey, they're actually still playing baseball and someone I've heard of might change teams soon, it's time to take a look at who might get unceremoniously shipped away from our local losers.

With Miguel Tejada hurt everything gets real boring around here, because who's even worth talking about if not for destined-to-fail Tejada-for-so-and-so-pitchers rumors?

On the Nats all eyes are on Chad Cordero. And honestly who else is worth a damn? Jon Rauch would add bullpen depth to a contender and his name has been tossed around also, but trading away your two best relievers -- both of whom are under 30 -- doesn't seem real smart for a team that's building for the future.

Don't get me wrong, no one's building a franchise around a bullpen, but not having one will certainly slow the process (just ask the Orioles).

Allegedly Ryan Church is on the block, and if Jim Bowden had his way he'd replace Church with Adam Dunn. That's a great idea but I don't see any way that Bowden has what it would take to get Dunn from the Reds. Although I wouldn't have thought Royce Clayton and an over-worked Gary Majewski would have been enough to get Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez from the Reds, so I guess anything is possible when dealing with Bowden's former employer.

For the Orioles there are a few trade options I guess.

They could dump Kevin Millar off on some team that needs a DH or first baseman who gets on base at a .390 clip (that's what he's doing this season ... I didn't believe it myself until I looked it up). The obvious fit is the Yankees but he's said he doesn't want to go there -- or anywhere for that matter.

Steve Trachsel could get some looks from teams who are REALLY strapped for starting pitching (even Rodrigo Lopez got some looks last July). But his departure won't really be much of a loss for the starting rotation with Garrett Olson proving he deserves a shot, nor will Trax bring much of anything in return. So who really cares?

Other than that, there's your typical list of guys who are only in rumors in Orioles fan circles because we want to see them gone, not because there are actually any takers. Danys Baez tops the list of course. Jay Gibbons is a close second. Some have even suggested Chris Ray, but he's got huge upside so why trade him when his value's never been lower?

Yep. Nothing but questions. Boring questions that no one really cares to know the answers to.

Fun.
 

Orioles Get Serious About Fixing The Bullpen

If you're big starting pitching acquisition is going to be five-inning-Jaret Wright, you're bullpen needs to be better than the 5.25 ERA and 21 blown leads that the O's 'pen posted in 2006. Toward that end, the O's are apparently on the verge of signing their third and fourth veteran relievers of the offseason, Chad Bradford and Scott Williamson, according to ESPN.com.

While the Orioles front office has admitted a need to focus on the holes in left field and at first base/designated hitter, so far the offseason has brought nothing but pitching ... not to say that's a bad thing.

The O's bullpen ranked next to last in the majors last year, and adding Bradford (2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 62 innings with the Mets last year), Jamie Walker (2.81, 1.15 in 48 innings with Detroit in '06), Williamson (3.32 ERA in six big league seasons) and Danys Baez (2005 All-Star with the Devil Rays) should be an improvement over the retreads and call-ups that the Orioles cycled through the bullpen last year.

Before the Williamson/Bradford double-signing, The Baltimore Sun's Roch Kubatko, purely speculating, projected the 2007 Orioles bullpen to be:

Chris Ray
Jamie Walker
Danys Baez
"Another new guy (Dustin Hermanson? Joe Borowski? Chad Bradford?)"
John Parrish
Kurt Birkins
Hayden Penn

Well now it's clear that there are TWO new guys, which means Parrish, Birkins or Penn is likely out, barring a trade.

I'd like to see Aaron Rakers get a shot, but it would probably be better for him to start out in AAA Norfolk after missing all of last season with a torn labrum.

After the Baez signing, some -- and by some I mean one -- is speculating that the Orioles may now look to shop young stud closer Chris Ray for a power bat.

The good thing about adding a bunch of relievers, besides immediately helping the bullpen, is that relievers are relatively unheralded in the offseason but when the trade deadline rolls around contending teams suddenly find themselves in desperate need of the bullpen help that will nudge them into the postseason (see the Reds sending Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Nationals this past season for Gary Majewski and Bill Bray). If the O's find themselves out of it in July, guys like Williamson could fetch a high price.

On the other hand, Bradford, Baez and Walker are all looking at three-year deals, which would make them more difficult to trade at the deadline to a team looking for a rental.

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal says the O's are close to re-upping with Kevin Millahhhh and that he could find himself as part of a platoon with Aubrey Huff or some other lefty batter. I'd like that idea if Millar hit lefties (.244 AVG, .722 OPS last year) better than righties (.283 AVG, .845 OPS). But he doesn't. So that idea is stupid.

The Orioles were also linked to the Manny Ramirez conversation, but apparently those talks never really got anywhere.

The real question is can the Orioles pry a power hitter (of course I'd love Manny being Manny, but for the sake of sanity let's say Adam Dunn) away from someone without parting with Erik Bedard?

The bullpen help is nice and all, and will probably be worth a solid 5-10 wins next season, but the O's need a real power bat and Aubrey Huff is not the answer.