The three most likely free agency plans for the Orioles in 2012

Based on a deep historical analysis of my own memories, I've come up with the three most likely routes for the Orioles to take in 2012 MLB Free Agency:

1) The Orioles give huge, multi-year contracts to Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Zumaya (although Zumaya isn't Type A or Type B, so the Orioles might instead find someone who would cost them a draft pick). Then they bring in Hideki Matsui on a multi-million dollar, one-year deal (at least it's not multiple years!) and Johnny Damon on a multi-million dollar, multi-year deal (whoops). They may or may not cap this off by adding Livan Hernandez for mentoring purposes.

2) The Orioles give Jose Reyes 10 years, $250 million to play 2B. He plays a total of 6 games in an Orioles uniform between hamstring, hamstring, hamstring and hamstring injuries. (To be fair, in those 6 games he bats .385 and steals 3 bases.)

3) The Orioles give C.J. Wilson 8 years, $180 million. He spontaneously combusts on the mound on Opening Day.

So there it is. I've thrown down the gauntlet to the new, yet-to-be-named General Manager/President of Baseball Operations. Prove me wrong!
 

For You Orioles Stat Geeks

With the Orioles having some marginal success (15-14 from May 28 to June 28), I decided to look at some numbers. With everyone focusing on the improved pitching, I noticed that a lot of the hitters have stepped it up in June as well.


As I jinx everyone on the Orioles...

PLAYER		SEASON				JUNE
		AVG	OBP	SLG		AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jeff Conine		.254	.333	.424		59	.305	.379	.492
Brandon Fahey		.264	.315	.347		46	.261	.333	.413
Jay Gibbons		.274	.312	.495		7	.429	.429	.429
Razor Ramon		.287	.351	.524		93	.290	.356	.613
Javy Lopez		.276	.323	.429		90	.289	.319	.467
Nick Markakis		.250	.326	.337		59	.322	.385	.390
Luis Matos		.205	.282	.339		47	.255	.352	.383
Kevin Millar		.242	.349	.376		71	.254	.357	.408
Melvin Mora		.290	.355	.427		93	.247	.311	.301
Scorey Patterson		.282	.324	.429		100	.270	.305	.330
Brian Roberts		.314	.383	.415		109	.303	.374	.394
Ed Rogers		.211	.200	.211		9	.111	.100	.111
Miguel Tejada		.314	.367	.517		99	.293	.343	.404

An interesting thing that this table displays is that the guys who are having better-than-their-season OPS months (with more than 10 ABs... sorry Gibby... and Kris Benson) are Conine, Fahey, Hernandez, Javy, Markakis, Matos and Millar. Surprisingly absent from that list are Mora, Tejada and Roberts.

So ranking OPS for June, you get:

1) Ramon Hernandez .969 (and that was including an 0-for-23 skid)
2) Jeff Conine .870
3) Miguel Tejada .802 (even on a "down" month, Tejada's one of our best players)
4) Javy Lopez .786
5) Nick Markakis .774
6) Brian Roberts .768
7) Kevin Millar .766
8) Brandon Fahey .746
9) Luis Matos .735
10) Corey Patterson .635
11) Melvin Mora .612 (Melvin what are you doing down here?)

Granted, from June 1 to June 28 the team is two games under .500, and that's when these stats were accrued, but with Tejada and Roberts not on their normal pace and Mora scuffling, it's good that the O's have some other guys stepping it up, because every team is going to have stretches when their top guys aren't red hot and typically over the last 8 or 9 years the Orioles have been the kind of team to let those stretches crush them.